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Intuit believes that the number of tax returns filed during the 2011 tax season will be unchanged from last year. That's after two consecutive years of declines that stemmed from the recession. That prediction was among several points made this morning by Brad Smith, the tax and accounting company's CEO, as he addressed attendees at the company's annual shareholders' meeting.

Smith also noted that Intuit's payment processing business shows that average charge volume per merchant has improved. "It's not as bad as it was at the depth of the recession," he said. "But it's still down 3 percent year over year." Smith said that compared to a drop of 8 percent to 9 percent the prior year.

He also said that the company's small business hiring index showed that small business hiring has grown at a 3.5 percent rate. However, that isn't enough to drive the economy forward quickly. "It will take us five years to get back to 2007 employee levels," Smith commented. "It isn't a beautiful picture. It's a volatile picture. It's going to be a long, protracted recovery."

Smith repeated his frequent analysis that in recessions, the number of small businesses formed typically increases as laid off employees start their own operations. However, given the credit crunch, that hadn't happened until recently.

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